VISANOW Global Immigration Blog

The Immigration Reform See-Saw Continues

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The immigration reform see-saw on Capitol Hill continued this month. President Obama's State of the Union address, the competing White House top priorities, the mood in Congress resulting from resignations and election jitters, and the lacking progress on a comprehensive bill all add up to a rather bleak outlook of CIR passage this year. For the time being, Napolitano's Department of Homeland Security continues its enforcement-only strategy considered to be somewhat ineffective, but is the only tangible government immigration action at the moment. However, there are still signs of hope and efforts to keep CIR at the top of the agenda continue.

CIR headwinds

• The end of January brought bleak news with CIR seemingly positioned as an after thought during President Obama's State of the Union Address. Instead of an addendum the President could have tied immigration reform into many areas within his address to highlight its importance, but nevertheless CIR was relegated to the very end of the speech and merely 38 words. Obama refocused the top priorities during his speech on the issues of regulation, energy/climate, healthcare, education, the budget deficit and job creation. Among these, the economy and the Jobs Package were clearly highlighted as most important while CIR was no longer included as a stated top priority.

Signs of Hope

• The recruitment of bipartisan support continues. Sen. Charles Schumer [D-N.Y.], who is spearheading the comprehensive reform bill, recently met with Lou Dobbs, traditionally one of immigration's most vocal critics. Some think that winning Dobb's support may significantly boost reform efforts.
• CIR advocates sustain the reform momentum through immigration rallies and conferences. Reform Immigration for American is holding a national immigration rally in Washington D.C. on March 21. Further, faith-leaders continue to ramp up CIR support with the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB) helping to mobilize CIR support through the Justice For Immigrants (JFI) campaign.
• Studies that support CIR passage continue. A study by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) recently released disqualified the notion that immigration lowers wages for native-born workers.

Uncertain  Factors

• The number of senate resignations is now up to 12 and even though there are many months before elections begin in November, incumbents are starting to feel the heat already. CIR has been called a thorny issue, and high-risk if taken up before the November elections. On the other hand, the Latinos have voting power as seen by the GOP embracing more immigrant/immigration friendly language. This could help the GOP win more seats, but also help build more bipartisan support for CIR. However, with very limited progress on CIR, there's no way to predict how Latino voters will vote at the polls or if they will even show up.
• The intermix of the jobs package with immigration reform has already begun and could result in similar delays as we saw last year with healthcare. GOP senators have already expressed their desire to include immigration measures in the job package and currently proclaim that the $1,000 deduction could be used to hire illegal immigrants since the bill doesn't specify workers must be legal or that E-Verify must be used. Conversely, the jobs package may be turning the mood in Congress with GOP senators stepping up to advance the job-creation bill put forth by Democrats. The bill was approved today in the Senate with unusually strong bipartisan support,  but will need to be taken up in the House before it is finalized. This is a glimpse of bipartisanship and the Senate coming together for common good - which is also crucial for successful CIR passage.
• President Obama put forth a healthcare plan earlier this week to jump-start the paralyzed health care reform. A televised healthcare reform summit will be held tomorrow, and may help determine the fate of the battered healthcare reform. Progress on healthcare will set the stage if the White House can deliver and pass bills. Thus, healthcare passage would bode well for CIR advancement.

Considering the factors above, which could derail immigration reform or aid its passage, it is clear that the fate of immigration reform remains uncertain and that advocates need to stay tuned and maintain the CIR momentum.

By: Maina B.
Photo attribution: http://www.flickr.com/photos/davidprior/